Compare methods

	Counterfactual Analysis	Process Tracing
Field	International Relations	Psychometrics
Family	Process / pipeline	Latent structure
Year of origin	1991	2005
Originator	James Fearon (methodological treatment); Tetlock & Belkin (framework)	Alexander George, Andrew Bennett
Type	Method of causal reasoning via hypothetical alternatives	Qualitative causal inference
Seminal source	Fearon, J. D. (1991). Counterfactuals and hypothesis testing in political science. World Politics, 43(2), 169–195.	Bennett, A., & Checkel, J. T. (Eds.). (2015). Process Tracing: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool. Cambridge University Press.
Aliases	Counterfactual Reasoning in IR, What-If Analysis in International Relations, Counterfactual Thought Experiments, Hypothetical Case Analysis	—
Related	3	5
Summary	Counterfactual analysis evaluates causal claims in international relations by reasoning about what would have happened had some antecedent been different: had the archduke not been assassinated, had the United States not deployed missiles, had a leader chosen otherwise. As Fearon (1991) argues, such counterfactuals play a necessary if often implicit role in testing hypotheses about singular and small-N events, where ordinary statistical comparison is impossible. Done rigorously — with plausible antecedents, sound connecting principles, and attention to confounders — counterfactual analysis disciplines the 'what if' reasoning that pervades historical and conflict explanation.	Process Tracing is a qualitative research method developed by George and Bennett (2005) for studying causal mechanisms and causal chains within individual cases. It involves examining the sequence of events and decision-making processes within a case to infer whether a hypothesized causal mechanism actually operated. Process tracing aims to strengthen causal inference in case studies by looking beyond correlation to understand how causes produce effects.