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| Αυτοπαλινδρομικό Μοντέλο (AR)× | Έλεγχος Αιτιότητας Granger× | |
|---|---|---|
| Πεδίο | Οικονομετρία | Οικονομετρία |
| Οικογένεια | Regression model | Regression model |
| Έτος προέλευσης≠ | 1970s (popularised 1976) | 1969 |
| Δημιουργός≠ | George E. P. Box and Gwilym M. Jenkins | Clive W. J. Granger |
| Τύπος≠ | Time series model | Causality test (F-test on VAR) |
| Θεμελιώδης πηγή≠ | Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (revised ed.). Holden-Day. ISBN: 978-0816211043 | Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424–438. DOI ↗ |
| Εναλλακτικές ονομασίες | AR model, AR(p) model, autoregression, AR process | Granger test, GC test, predictive causality test, Granger non-causality test |
| Συναφείς≠ | 6 | 5 |
| Σύνοψη≠ | An autoregressive model of order p — AR(p) — expresses the current value of a time series as a linear function of its own p most recent past values plus a white-noise error. It is the building block of the Box-Jenkins family of time-series models and is widely used for forecasting stationary economic and financial series. | The Granger causality test is a statistical hypothesis test that determines whether past values of one time series help predict future values of another, beyond what that series' own past already explains. Introduced by Clive Granger in 1969, it is the standard approach for assessing predictive causality in VAR-based time-series analysis. |
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