Methoden vergleichen

	MCMC für Zeitreihen	Gibbs-Sampling
Fachgebiet	Bayes-Statistik	Bayes-Statistik
Familie	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods
Entstehungsjahr	1994–1997	1984
Urheber	Carter & Kohn; West & Harrison	Stuart Geman & Donald Geman
Typ	Bayesian posterior sampling for time-ordered data	MCMC sampling algorithm
Wegweisende Quelle	Carter, C. K. & Kohn, R. (1994). On Gibbs sampling for state space models. Biometrika, 81(3), 541–553.	Geman, S. & Geman, D. (1984). Stochastic relaxation, Gibbs distributions, and the Bayesian restoration of images. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence, 6(6), 721-741.
Aliasnamen	MCMC time series, Bayesian time series MCMC, time series posterior sampling, sequential Bayesian MCMC	Gibbs sampler, coordinate-wise MCMC, systematic scan Gibbs, blocked Gibbs sampling
Verwandt	6	5
Zusammenfassung	Time series MCMC applies Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to Bayesian inference over time-ordered data. Rather than optimising a single parameter estimate, it draws samples from the full joint posterior of parameters and latent states, yielding probability distributions that honestly reflect uncertainty about dynamics, trends, and seasonal patterns across every time point.	Gibbs sampling is a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that approximates a high-dimensional posterior distribution by repeatedly drawing each parameter from its full conditional distribution given all other parameters and the data. Because each draw is exact from a conditional — not a proposal that may be rejected — the sampler is efficient when those conditionals are available in closed form.