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| Strukturelles Zeitreihenmodell (Grundlegendes Strukturmodell)× | Bayesianische strukturelle Zeitreihen× | |
|---|---|---|
| Fachgebiet≠ | Ökonometrie | Bayes-Statistik |
| Familie≠ | Regression model | Bayesian methods |
| Entstehungsjahr≠ | 1990 | 2014 |
| Urheber≠ | Andrew C. Harvey | Scott & Varian (2014); Brodersen et al. (2015) |
| Typ≠ | State-space (unobserved components) time series model | State-space model / Bayesian structural model |
| Wegweisende Quelle≠ | Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press. ISBN: 978-0521405737 | Scott, S. L. & Varian, H. R. (2014). Predicting the Present with Bayesian Structural Time Series. International Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation, 5(1/2), 4–23. DOI ↗ |
| Aliasnamen | BSM, basic structural model, unobserved components model, Yapısal Zaman Serisi Modeli (BSM) | BSTS, Bayesian Yapısal Zaman Serisi (BSTS), bayesian state-space model, causal impact model |
| Verwandt≠ | 4 | 5 |
| Zusammenfassung≠ | The Structural Time Series Model, in its Basic Structural Model (BSM) form, is Andrew Harvey's state-space approach that decomposes a series into separate stochastic trend, seasonal, cyclical, and irregular components. Developed in Harvey's 1990 treatment, it is prized for interpretability and component decomposition where ARIMA only delivers a black-box fit. | Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) is a state-space modelling framework, introduced by Scott and Varian (2014), that decomposes a time series into additive components — trend, seasonality, and regression — and estimates them jointly through Bayesian inference. It underpins Google's CausalImpact library and is a powerful tool for both forecasting and counterfactual causal analysis of interventions. |
| ScholarGateDatensatz ↗ |
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