Methoden vergleichen

	Simulation-gestützte Ereignisbaumanalyse	Fehlerbaumanalyse (FTA)
Fachgebiet	Versuchsplanung	Reliabilität
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	1970s–1990s (formalized in probabilistic risk assessment practice)	1981
Urheber	H.A. Watson (Bell Telephone Laboratories, ETA origins ~1961); Monte Carlo integration of ETA developed in nuclear/aerospace PRA community 1970s–1990s	Vesely et al. (US NRC Fault Tree Handbook)
Typ	Probabilistic risk and reliability assessment method	Deductive top-down failure analysis
Wegweisende Quelle	Zio, E. (2009). Reliability engineering: Old problems and new challenges. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 94(2), 125–141.	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook (NUREG-0492). U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
Aliasnamen	Monte Carlo ETA, stochastic event tree analysis, simulation-enhanced ETA, probabilistic event tree simulation	FTA, Fault Tree Method, Top-Down Reliability Analysis, Hata Ağacı Analizi
Verwandt	6	3
Zusammenfassung	Simulation-assisted event tree analysis (ETA) extends classical event tree analysis by replacing fixed point-estimate branch probabilities with Monte Carlo or discrete-event simulation. This allows analysts to propagate uncertainty through every branch of the tree and obtain full probability distributions over accident sequences and system outcomes, yielding far richer risk insights than deterministic ETA alone.	Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a top-down, deductive reliability method that begins with an undesired top-level failure event and systematically traces backward through chains of contributing causes using Boolean logic gates (AND, OR). First formalized by Watson at Bell Telephone Laboratories in 1961 and later standardized by Vesely, Goldberg, Roberts, and Haasl in the landmark 1981 NRC Fault Tree Handbook, FTA has become a cornerstone of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear, aerospace, and industrial safety engineering.