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| Szenarioanalyse und Was-wäre-wenn-Simulation× | SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS× | |
|---|---|---|
| Fachgebiet≠ | Simulation | Entscheidungsfindung |
| Familie≠ | Process / pipeline | MCDM |
| Entstehungsjahr≠ | 1950s (origins); widely adopted in management since 1970s | 2004 |
| Urheber≠ | Peter Schwartz (scenario planning formalization), Herman Kahn (RAND Corporation, 1950s–60s) | Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S., Campolongo, F., Ratto, M. |
| Typ≠ | Structured analytical approach / simulation | Robustness wrapper — parameter / weight perturbation sensitivity indices |
| Wegweisende Quelle≠ | Goodwin, P. & Wright, G. (2014). Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118173671 | Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S., Campolongo, F., Ratto, M. (2004). Sensitivity Analysis in Practice. Wiley, Chichester DOI ↗ |
| Aliasnamen≠ | what-if analysis, what-if simulation, stress testing, scenario planning | — |
| Verwandt≠ | 3 | 0 |
| Zusammenfassung≠ | Scenario analysis is a structured analytical approach that systematically compares system outputs across different combinations of uncertain input values. When paired with a quantitative model, it becomes a simulation — capable of stress-testing assumptions and projecting the range of plausible outcomes. Formalised in strategic planning by Peter Schwartz and Herman Kahn from the 1950s onward, the method is widely used in policy evaluation, business forecasting, financial risk assessment, and scientific model exploration. | SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS (Sensitivity Analysis — Systematic assessment of output variation w.r.t. input perturbations) is a ranking multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method introduced by Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S., Campolongo, F., Ratto, M. in 2004. It turns a decision matrix of alternatives scored on multiple criteria into a structured, reproducible result. |
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