Methoden vergleichen

	Placebo-Test zur Politikbewertung	Permutationstest (Randomisierungstest)
Fachgebiet	Kausale Inferenz	Statistik
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	1990s–2000s	2005
Urheber	Bertrand, Duflo & Mullainathan (2004 canonical formalization); Imbens & Wooldridge (2009 textbook treatment)	Good (2005); Edgington & Onghena (2007); resampling tradition
Typ	Falsification / specification check	Nonparametric resampling test
Wegweisende Quelle	Imbens, G. W., & Wooldridge, J. M. (2009). Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation. Journal of Economic Literature, 47(1), 5-86.	Good, P. (2005). Permutation, Parametric and Bootstrap Tests of Hypotheses (3rd ed.). Springer. ISBN: 978-0387202792
Aliasnamen	placebo test, falsification test, fake treatment test, placebo regression	randomization test, exact permutation test, re-randomization test, Permütasyon Testi
Verwandt	4	5
Zusammenfassung	A policy evaluation placebo test is a falsification check used in quasi-experimental research to validate a causal identification strategy. The researcher applies the same estimation method to a pseudo-treatment — a time period, group, or outcome where the real policy could not have had an effect — and checks that no spurious effect is detected. A null placebo result builds confidence that the main estimate reflects a genuine causal impact rather than bias or confounding.	The permutation test is a nonparametric resampling procedure that builds the sampling distribution of a test statistic directly from the data by repeatedly shuffling the group labels. Developed in the resampling tradition and treated systematically by Good (2005) and Edgington & Onghena (2007), it requires no parametric distributional assumption and yields an exact p-value.