Methoden vergleichen

	Multi-period Causal Impact Analysis	Kausale Auswirkungsanalyse
Fachgebiet	Kausale Inferenz	Kausale Inferenz
Familie	Regression model	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	2015 (base); multi-period extensions 2017–present	2015
Urheber	Brodersen, Gallusser, Koehler, Remy & Scott (Google); extended to multi-period settings by subsequent applied work	Kay H. Brodersen, Fabian Gallusser, Jim Koehler, Nicolas Remy, Steven L. Scott (Google)
Typ	Bayesian structural time-series / quasi-experimental	Bayesian causal inference / counterfactual forecasting
Wegweisende Quelle	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.	Brodersen, K. H., Gallusser, F., Koehler, J., Remy, N., & Scott, S. L. (2015). Inferring causal impact using Bayesian structural time-series models. Annals of Applied Statistics, 9(1), 247-274.
Aliasnamen	multi-period CausalImpact, staggered causal impact, repeated-period causal impact, multi-wave CausalImpact	CausalImpact, BSTS causal inference, Bayesian causal impact, counterfactual time-series analysis
Verwandt	6	5
Zusammenfassung	Multi-period Causal Impact Analysis extends the Bayesian structural time-series framework of Brodersen et al. (2015) to settings where an intervention occurs across multiple distinct periods, is applied at staggered times to different units, or where researchers wish to evaluate cumulative and period-specific effects within a single unified model. It builds a synthetic counterfactual from control covariates and projects it across each intervention window to quantify causal effects.	Causal Impact Analysis, introduced by Brodersen et al. (2015) at Google, uses Bayesian structural time-series models to estimate what would have happened to an outcome had an intervention never occurred. By constructing a probabilistic counterfactual from pre-treatment data and control covariates, it quantifies point-in-time and cumulative treatment effects with full posterior uncertainty intervals.