Methoden vergleichen

	Migrationsmodelle (Push-Pull / Multiregional)	Kohorten-Komponenten-Bevölkerungsprojektion
Fachgebiet	Demographie	Demographie
Familie	Regression model	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	1966	2001
Urheber	Everett Lee	Preston, Heuveline & Guillot
Typ	Theoretical-quantitative migration framework	Demographic projection pipeline
Wegweisende Quelle	Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47–57.	Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2
Aliasnamen	Push-Pull Migration Theory, Multiregional Migration Model, Lee Migration Framework, Göç Modelleri	Cohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen Projeksiyonu
Verwandt	3	3
Zusammenfassung	Migration models are quantitative frameworks for explaining and forecasting population movement between geographic units. Lee's (1966) push-pull theory classifies factors at origin and destination into positive and negative forces, modulated by intervening obstacles. Widely used by demographers, regional planners, and policy researchers to project labor mobility, refugee flows, and urbanization trends across national and subnational geographies.	Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide.