Methoden vergleichen

	Horizon Scanning	Foresight Scenario Method
Fachgebiet	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	2009	1995
Urheber	William J. Sutherland, Effie Amanatidou, and the foresight/scanning community	Paul Schoemaker, drawing on Herman Kahn and the Shell/intuitive-logics tradition
Typ	Systematic search-and-detection process	Structured future-construction process
Wegweisende Quelle	Sutherland, W. J., & Woodroof, H. J. (2009). The need for environmental horizon scanning. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 24(10), 523-527.	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.
Aliasnamen	Environmental scanning, Weak-signal detection, Emerging-issues analysis	Scenario planning, Intuitive-logics scenarios, Scenario building
Verwandt	4	4
Zusammenfassung	Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of information to detect early signs of potentially important developments—weak signals, emerging issues, and wild cards—before they become obvious or fully formed. By surveying a wide range of sources at the edge of current attention, it gives decision-makers advance warning of opportunities and threats and supplies the raw material for foresight, scenario building, and anticipatory policy.	The scenario method constructs a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about how the future might unfold, built from the key driving forces and critical uncertainties facing a decision. Rather than forecasting one expected future, it deliberately develops several contrasting futures so that strategies can be tested against a range of possibilities and decision-makers can rehearse responses to what might otherwise be surprises.