Methoden vergleichen

	Foresight Scenario Method	Horizon Scanning
Fachgebiet	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	1995	2009
Urheber	Paul Schoemaker, drawing on Herman Kahn and the Shell/intuitive-logics tradition	William J. Sutherland, Effie Amanatidou, and the foresight/scanning community
Typ	Structured future-construction process	Systematic search-and-detection process
Wegweisende Quelle	Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40.	Sutherland, W. J., & Woodroof, H. J. (2009). The need for environmental horizon scanning. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 24(10), 523-527.
Aliasnamen	Scenario planning, Intuitive-logics scenarios, Scenario building	Environmental scanning, Weak-signal detection, Emerging-issues analysis
Verwandt	4	4
Zusammenfassung	The scenario method constructs a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about how the future might unfold, built from the key driving forces and critical uncertainties facing a decision. Rather than forecasting one expected future, it deliberately develops several contrasting futures so that strategies can be tested against a range of possibilities and decision-makers can rehearse responses to what might otherwise be surprises.	Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of information to detect early signs of potentially important developments—weak signals, emerging issues, and wild cards—before they become obvious or fully formed. By surveying a wide range of sources at the edge of current attention, it gives decision-makers advance warning of opportunities and threats and supplies the raw material for foresight, scenario building, and anticipatory policy.