Methoden vergleichen

	Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis	Probabilistische Erdbebengefährdungsanalyse (PSHA)
Fachgebiet	Disaster Studies	Bauingenieurwesen
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	1990	1968
Urheber	Leon Reiter (codification); classical engineering-seismology practice	C. Allin Cornell
Typ	Scenario-based ground-motion estimation pipeline	Quantitative probabilistic framework
Wegweisende Quelle	Reiter, L. (1990). Earthquake Hazard Analysis: Issues and Insights. New York: Columbia University Press. ISBN: 9780231065344	Cornell, C. A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58(5), 1583–1606.
Aliasnamen	DSHA, Scenario Earthquake Analysis, Maximum Credible Earthquake Analysis, Deterministic Ground-Motion Estimation	PSHA, seismic hazard analysis, probabilistic earthquake hazard assessment, Cornell-McGuire method
Verwandt	3	1
Zusammenfassung	Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) estimates the ground motion a site would experience from a specific, postulated earthquake scenario rather than from the full probabilistic aggregation of all possible earthquakes. The analyst identifies the seismic sources capable of affecting the site, assigns each a maximum magnitude and a closest distance, and then asks what shaking the most demanding of these scenarios would produce. Leon Reiter's 1990 text codified the four-step DSHA procedure that remains the textbook reference, situating it alongside the probabilistic framework that Cornell introduced in 1968. The output is typically a single design ground motion or response spectrum, often computed at the median or median-plus-one-standard-deviation level. DSHA answers the question 'what is the worst shaking a credible earthquake could deliver here?' rather than 'how often is a given shaking level exceeded?'. It remains central to critical-facility design, scenario emergency planning, and as a deterministic cap on probabilistic results.	Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is a quantitative engineering framework used in civil and geotechnical engineering to estimate the likelihood that ground shaking will exceed a specified intensity level at a site within a given time window. By combining earthquake source geometry, recurrence statistics, and ground-motion attenuation models, PSHA produces hazard curves and maps that inform seismic design codes, infrastructure planning, and risk management decisions.