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| Deterministische Szenarioanalyse× | System Dynamics× | |
|---|---|---|
| Fachgebiet | Simulation | Simulation |
| Familie | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Entstehungsjahr≠ | 1967 | 1961 |
| Urheber≠ | Kahn, H., Wiener, A. J. (RAND Corporation / Hudson Institute) | Jay W. Forrester |
| Typ≠ | Exploratory planning and decision-support framework | Continuous simulation / feedback modelling |
| Wegweisende Quelle≠ | Kahn, H., Wiener, A. J. (1967). The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. Macmillan, New York. ISBN: 9780025604407 | Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159 |
| Aliasnamen | DSA, Fixed-Input Scenario Analysis, Classical Scenario Analysis, Deterministic What-If Analysis | stock-flow modelling, Sistem Dinamiği (Stock-Flow Modelleme), SD modelling, feedback simulation |
| Verwandt≠ | 5 | 3 |
| Zusammenfassung≠ | Deterministic Scenario Analysis (DSA) is a structured planning method in which analysts construct a finite set of internally consistent future scenarios, each defined by fixed, precisely specified parameter values rather than probability distributions. By running a model or calculation under each scenario's fixed inputs, decision-makers can map how outcomes diverge across plausible futures and stress-test strategies without requiring full probabilistic characterization of uncertainty. | System dynamics is a continuous simulation method, developed by Jay W. Forrester at MIT in 1961, that represents a complex system through stocks (accumulations), flows (rates of change), and feedback loops. By expressing these relationships as coupled ordinary differential equations, it reproduces how policies, delays, and nonlinear feedbacks drive system behaviour over time — making it a cornerstone tool in policy analysis, organisational modelling, and sustainability research. |
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