Methoden vergleichen

	Delphi-Methode	Policy Scenario Analysis
Fachgebiet	Qualitativ	Simulation
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	1963	1967–1990s
Urheber	Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer (RAND Corporation)	Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD
Typ	Structured iterative expert-elicitation process	Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method
Wegweisende Quelle	Dalkey, N. & Helmer, O. (1963). An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts. Management Science, 9(3), 458-467.	Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146.
Aliasnamen	Delphi Yöntemi, Delphi technique, expert consensus method	PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis
Verwandt	5	5
Zusammenfassung	The Delphi method is a structured, iterative survey technique developed by Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer at the RAND Corporation in 1963 for eliciting and converging expert opinion on complex topics where empirical data are unavailable or insufficient. It collects independent judgements from a geographically dispersed expert panel over multiple anonymous rounds, feeding aggregated results back to participants after each round so they can revise their views in light of the group's collective position.	Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health.