Methoden vergleichen

	Technology Delphi	Technology Foresight
Fachgebiet	Science Technology Studies	Science Technology Studies
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	1975	1995
Urheber	Helmer & Dalkey (RAND); national applications by NISTEP (Japan) and Cuhls (Germany)	Ben R. Martin, Irene Miles, and the UK/Japanese foresight programmes
Typ	Iterative structured expert-survey process	Participatory future-oriented strategic process
Wegweisende Quelle	Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948	Martin, B. R. (1995). Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7(2), 139-168.
Aliasnamen	Technology Delphi survey, Foresight Delphi, National Delphi forecast	Foresight studies, Strategic technology forecasting, Future-oriented technology analysis
Verwandt	4	4
Zusammenfassung	The technology Delphi is a large-scale, multi-round expert survey used to forecast the timing, importance, and feasibility of future technological developments. Built on the classic Delphi principles of anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical aggregation, it elicits judgements from hundreds or thousands of experts on a structured list of technology statements and converges them, round by round, into a collective forecast that informs national and organisational science and technology priorities.	Technology foresight is a systematic, participatory process of looking into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, and society in order to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Rather than predicting a single future, it brings experts and stakeholders together to explore plausible futures, build shared visions, and translate them into present-day priorities and action.