Methoden vergleichen

	Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM)	Granger-Kausalitätstest
Fachgebiet	Kausale Inferenz	Ökonometrie
Familie	Machine learning	Regression model
Entstehungsjahr	2012	1969
Urheber	George Sugihara et al.	Clive W. J. Granger
Typ	Nonlinear time-series causality test	Time-series predictive causality test
Wegweisende Quelle	Sugihara, G., et al. (2012). Detecting causality in complex ecosystems. Science, 338(6106), 496–500.	Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
Aliasnamen	CCM, Cross-Convergent Mapping, Empirical Dynamic Modelling Causality, Yakınsak Çapraz Haritalama	Granger causality test, Granger non-causality test, predictive causality test, Granger Nedensellik Testi
Verwandt	3	5
Zusammenfassung	Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a nonlinear, state-space method for detecting causality between time-series variables embedded in a shared dynamical system. Introduced by George Sugihara and colleagues in their landmark 2012 Science paper, CCM exploits Takens' embedding theorem: if variable X causally influences Y, the historical record of Y contains enough information to recover the states of X. Causality is confirmed when cross-map skill improves—converges—as the time-series library grows longer.	The Granger causality test, introduced by Clive W. J. Granger in 1969, assesses whether the past values of one time series help predict another beyond what the latter's own past already explains. It defines causality in a strictly predictive sense rather than as a structural or physical cause.