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| Civil War Onset Analysis× | Conflict Recurrence Analysis× | |
|---|---|---|
| Fachgebiet | International Relations | International Relations |
| Familie≠ | Process / pipeline | Survival analysis |
| Entstehungsjahr≠ | 2003 | 2004 |
| Urheber≠ | Civil-war research program (e.g., James Fearon & David Laitin; Collier & Hoeffler) | Civil-war recurrence literature (e.g., Barbara F. Walter) |
| Typ≠ | Observational country-year analysis of civil-war onset | Survival/repeated-events analysis of renewed conflict |
| Wegweisende Quelle≠ | Fearon, J. D., & Laitin, D. D. (2003). Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war. American Political Science Review, 97(1), 75–90. DOI ↗ | Walter, B. F. (2004). Does conflict beget conflict? Explaining recurring civil war. Journal of Peace Research, 41(3), 371–388. DOI ↗ |
| Aliasnamen | Civil Conflict Onset Analysis, Greed vs. Grievance Analysis, Insurgency Onset Analysis, Determinants of Civil War | Recurring Civil War Analysis, Conflict Relapse Analysis, Repeated-Conflict Survival Analysis, Conflict Recidivism Analysis |
| Verwandt | 3 | 3 |
| Zusammenfassung≠ | Civil war onset analysis is the observational study of why internal armed conflict begins in some countries and years but not others. Organized as country-year data with a binary onset outcome, it models the probability of onset against structural, economic, and political conditions. Fearon and Laitin's (2003) influential analysis argued that civil war is best understood as insurgency, and that the conditions favoring insurgency — weak states, poverty, rough terrain, large populations — predict onset far better than ethnic or religious diversity, reframing the long 'greed versus grievance' debate. | Conflict recurrence analysis studies why and when conflicts that have ended return, treating renewed war as a time-to-event outcome. Most civil wars in recent decades have occurred in countries with a prior war, making recurrence a central puzzle. Using survival and repeated-events models — as in Barbara Walter's (2004) analysis of recurring civil war — researchers model the hazard that a post-conflict country relapses into violence as a function of how the war ended and the underlying conditions, while accounting for the fact that the same country can experience multiple conflict spells. |
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