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| Bayesian SARIMA-Modell× | Zustandsraummodell (Kalman-Filter)× | |
|---|---|---|
| Fachgebiet | Ökonometrie | Ökonometrie |
| Familie | Regression model | Regression model |
| Entstehungsjahr≠ | 1970s–1990s | 1990 |
| Urheber≠ | Box & Jenkins (classical SARIMA); Bayesian extensions developed through Zellner, Geweke, and later MCMC-era researchers | Harvey; Durbin & Koopman (state space treatment); Kalman filter |
| Typ≠ | Bayesian time-series model | State space time series model |
| Wegweisende Quelle≠ | Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control (5th ed.). Wiley. ISBN: 978-1118675021 | Harvey, A. C. (1990). Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. Cambridge University Press. DOI ↗ |
| Aliasnamen | Bayesian SARIMA, Bayesian seasonal ARIMA, BSARIMA, Bayesian seasonal time-series model | state space, Kalman filter, unobserved components model, Durum Uzayı Modeli (State Space / Kalman Filter) |
| Verwandt | 4 | 4 |
| Zusammenfassung≠ | The Bayesian SARIMA model combines the classical Box-Jenkins Seasonal ARIMA framework with Bayesian inference to handle seasonal time-series data. Rather than producing a single point estimate, it yields a full posterior distribution over model parameters, propagating parameter uncertainty directly into forecasts and enabling principled incorporation of prior knowledge. | A state space model is a general time series framework that describes a series through unobserved (latent) state variables linked by a measurement equation and a transition equation, with the states estimated in real time by the Kalman filter. Developed in the state space tradition of Harvey (1990) and Durbin & Koopman (2012), it nests ARIMA and exponential smoothing as special cases. |
| ScholarGateDatensatz ↗ |
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