Methoden vergleichen

	Bayesian Event Tree Analysis	Fehlerbaumanalyse (FTA)
Fachgebiet	Versuchsplanung	Reliabilität
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	ETA: 1960s–1970s; Bayesian extension: 1990s–2000s	1981
Urheber	H.E. Watson (Bell Labs, fault tree); ETA formalized via US Nuclear Regulatory Commission; Bayesian extension developed in reliability and risk engineering communities	Vesely et al. (US NRC Fault Tree Handbook)
Typ	Probabilistic risk and reliability analysis technique	Deductive top-down failure analysis
Wegweisende Quelle	Bearfield, G., & Marsh, W. (2005). Generalising event trees using Bayesian networks with a case study of train derailment. In G. Windeknecht et al. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 13th Safety-Critical Systems Symposium. Springer.	Vesely, W. E., Goldberg, F. F., Roberts, N. H., & Haasl, D. F. (1981). Fault Tree Handbook (NUREG-0492). U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
Aliasnamen	Bayesian ETA, B-ETA, Probabilistic Event Tree Analysis, Bayesian Inductive Risk Model	FTA, Fault Tree Method, Top-Down Reliability Analysis, Hata Ağacı Analizi
Verwandt	5	3
Zusammenfassung	Bayesian Event Tree Analysis (B-ETA) is a quantitative risk assessment method that extends classical event tree analysis by incorporating Bayesian inference to assign and update branch probabilities. Starting from an initiating event, it maps sequences of successes and failures through safety barriers, using prior distributions and observed evidence to produce posterior outcome probabilities. Widely used in nuclear safety, process industries, and system reliability engineering.	Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is a top-down, deductive reliability method that begins with an undesired top-level failure event and systematically traces backward through chains of contributing causes using Boolean logic gates (AND, OR). First formalized by Watson at Bell Telephone Laboratories in 1961 and later standardized by Vesely, Goldberg, Roberts, and Haasl in the landmark 1981 NRC Fault Tree Handbook, FTA has become a cornerstone of quantitative risk assessment in nuclear, aerospace, and industrial safety engineering.