Methoden vergleichen

	Bayesian Event Tree Analysis	Fehlermöglichkeits- und Einflussanalyse (FMEA)
Fachgebiet	Versuchsplanung	Versuchsplanung
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	ETA: 1960s–1970s; Bayesian extension: 1990s–2000s	1949 (military); widespread industrial adoption 1970s–1980s
Urheber	H.E. Watson (Bell Labs, fault tree); ETA formalized via US Nuclear Regulatory Commission; Bayesian extension developed in reliability and risk engineering communities	U.S. Military / NASA (formalized by MIL-P-1629, 1949)
Typ	Probabilistic risk and reliability analysis technique	Proactive risk analysis technique
Wegweisende Quelle	Bearfield, G., & Marsh, W. (2005). Generalising event trees using Bayesian networks with a case study of train derailment. In G. Windeknecht et al. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 13th Safety-Critical Systems Symposium. Springer.	Stamatis, D. H. (2003). Failure Mode and Effect Analysis: FMEA from Theory to Execution (2nd ed.). ASQ Quality Press. ISBN: 978-0873895989
Aliasnamen	Bayesian ETA, B-ETA, Probabilistic Event Tree Analysis, Bayesian Inductive Risk Model	FMEA, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis, FMECA, Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis
Verwandt	5	6
Zusammenfassung	Bayesian Event Tree Analysis (B-ETA) is a quantitative risk assessment method that extends classical event tree analysis by incorporating Bayesian inference to assign and update branch probabilities. Starting from an initiating event, it maps sequences of successes and failures through safety barriers, using prior distributions and observed evidence to produce posterior outcome probabilities. Widely used in nuclear safety, process industries, and system reliability engineering.	Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is a structured, proactive risk management technique used to identify potential failure modes in a system, process, or product design, evaluate their consequences, and prioritize corrective actions before failures occur. Originally developed for the U.S. military in 1949 and later adopted by NASA, automotive, and manufacturing industries, FMEA is now a cornerstone quality-engineering tool embedded in standards such as AIAG-VDA and ISO 9001-aligned processes.