Methoden vergleichen

	Bayesian Discrete-Event Simulation	Bayesian Markov Model
Fachgebiet	Simulation	Simulation
Familie	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
Entstehungsjahr	2000s–2010s	1990s–2000s
Urheber	Developed across operations research and Bayesian statistics communities; prominently formalized in health economic simulation in the 2000s–2010s	Briggs, A.; Sculpher, M.; and broader Bayesian statistics community
Typ	Hybrid simulation-inference framework	Probabilistic state-transition simulation
Wegweisende Quelle	Onggo, B. S., & Kunc, M. (2016). Combining discrete-event simulation and Bayesian updating for incorporating evidence from real-world data. Journal of Simulation, 10(1), 1-12.	Briggs, A., Sculpher, M., Claxton, K. (2006). Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation. Oxford University Press, Oxford. ISBN: 9780198526629
Aliasnamen	Bayesian DES, BDES, Bayesian event-driven simulation, posterior-driven discrete-event simulation	Bayesian Markov Chain Model, Bayesian State-Transition Model, BMM, Bayesian Cohort Simulation
Verwandt	6	4
Zusammenfassung	Bayesian Discrete-Event Simulation (BDES) integrates Bayesian statistical inference with discrete-event simulation. Prior beliefs about system parameters — such as service rates, arrival times, or failure probabilities — are updated with observed data via Bayes' theorem, and the resulting posterior distributions directly drive the simulation engine. This coupling allows modelers to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through event-driven process models.	A Bayesian Markov model is a state-transition simulation method that combines Markov chain cohort modeling with Bayesian statistical inference. By placing prior distributions on transition probabilities and updating them with observed data, the approach propagates full parameter uncertainty through the simulation, yielding posterior distributions over outcomes such as costs, life-years, or quality-adjusted life-years rather than single-point estimates.