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| Spatial Conflict Analysis× | Conflict Diffusion Analysis× | |
|---|---|---|
| Fagområde | International Relations | International Relations |
| Familie | Regression model | Regression model |
| Oprindelsesår≠ | 2002 | 2008 |
| Ophavsperson≠ | Spatial-analysis-of-conflict literature (e.g., Michael Ward & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch) | Conflict-diffusion literature (e.g., Most & Starr; Halvard Buhaug & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch) |
| Type≠ | Spatial regression / spatial-statistical modeling of conflict | Spatial-temporal analysis of conflict contagion |
| Oprindelig kilde≠ | Ward, M. D., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2002). Location, location, location: An MCMC approach to modeling the spatial context of war and peace. Political Analysis, 10(3), 244–260. DOI ↗ | Buhaug, H., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2008). Contagion or confusion? Why conflicts cluster in space. International Studies Quarterly, 52(2), 215–233. DOI ↗ |
| Aliasser | Spatial Analysis of War and Peace, Geographic Conflict Modeling, Spatial Econometrics of Conflict, Georeferenced Conflict Analysis | Conflict Contagion Analysis, Conflict Spillover Analysis, Spatial Diffusion of War, Conflict Spread Modeling |
| Relaterede | 3 | 3 |
| Resumé≠ | Spatial conflict analysis models armed conflict while taking geography seriously: conflict is not randomly scattered but clusters in space, and a place's risk depends on its neighbors. Building on georeferenced data and spatial-statistical methods — as in Ward and Gleditsch's (2002) MCMC approach to the spatial context of war and peace — it uses spatial weights, tests for spatial autocorrelation, and fits spatial regression models so that conflict, peace, and their predictors are analyzed as interdependent across locations rather than as isolated observations. | Conflict diffusion analysis studies how conflict spreads from one place to another — across borders, between neighboring regions, over time. It addresses a sharp inferential challenge posed by Buhaug and Gleditsch (2008): conflicts cluster in space, but clustering can reflect either genuine contagion (a war next door actually raises your risk) or merely the fact that neighbors share war-prone conditions. Using spatial-temporal lags of neighboring conflict alongside covariates, and theorizing concrete transmission mechanisms such as refugee flows and transnational ethnic ties, the method tries to separate true diffusion from spurious co-location. |
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