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Retirement Transition Event-History Analysis×Multistate Life Table×
FagområdeSocial GerontologyDemografi
FamilieSurvival analysisSurvival analysis
Oprindelsesår19981975
OphavspersonMark D. Hayward and colleaguesAndrei Rogers, Robert Schoen and collaborators
TypeTime-to-event hazard model of labor-force exitNonparametric life table with multiple living states and transitions
Oprindelig kildeHayward, M. D., Friedman, S., & Chen, H. (1998). Career trajectories and older men's retirement. The Journals of Gerontology Series B, 53B(2), S91-S103. DOI ↗Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 9781557864512
AliasserRetirement Hazard Model, Labor-Force Exit Survival Analysis, Retirement Timing Event-History Model, Discrete-Time Retirement ModelIncrement-Decrement Life Table, Multiple-State Life Table, Multistate Demography, Çok Durumlu Yaşam Tablosu
Relaterede34
ResuméRetirement transition event-history analysis applies survival and hazard modeling to the timing of the move out of the labor force in later life, treating retirement as a datable event whose risk unfolds over time. Rather than asking only whether someone is retired, it models the rate at which still-working older people retire at each age or duration, and how that rate depends on health, pensions, career history, and other life-course factors. Mark Hayward and colleagues' 1998 study of older men's retirement exemplifies the approach, showing that occupational and career trajectories shape the timing of labor-force exit, with different career conditions mattering at different stages. The method handles the central problem that many people are still working when observed, through right-censoring, and it accommodates covariates that change over time such as deteriorating health or pension eligibility. It can be implemented as a continuous-time proportional-hazards model or as a discrete-time model on person-period data. The result is a life-course account of why people retire when they do, expressed as transition rates and hazard ratios.The multistate life table, also called the increment-decrement life table, generalizes the ordinary life table to populations that move among several living states — such as healthy and disabled, married and unmarried, or employed and unemployed — as well as the absorbing state of death. Using age-specific transition rates organized in matrices, it tracks the flows of a synthetic cohort among states and yields state-specific expectancies, such as the years a person can expect to spend healthy versus disabled.
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