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Multistate Life Table×Lee-Carter-modellen×
FagområdeDemografiDemografi
FamilieSurvival analysisRegression model
Oprindelsesår19751992
OphavspersonAndrei Rogers, Robert Schoen and collaboratorsRonald Lee & Lawrence Carter
TypeNonparametric life table with multiple living states and transitionsStochastic mortality forecasting model
Oprindelig kildePreston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 9781557864512Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI ↗
AliasserIncrement-Decrement Life Table, Multiple-State Life Table, Multistate Demography, Çok Durumlu Yaşam TablosuLC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli
Relaterede42
ResuméThe multistate life table, also called the increment-decrement life table, generalizes the ordinary life table to populations that move among several living states — such as healthy and disabled, married and unmarried, or employed and unemployed — as well as the absorbing state of death. Using age-specific transition rates organized in matrices, it tracks the flows of a synthetic cohort among states and yields state-specific expectancies, such as the years a person can expect to spend healthy versus disabled.The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.
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