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| Foresight Scenario Method× | Horizon Scanning× | |
|---|---|---|
| Fagområde | Science Technology Studies | Science Technology Studies |
| Familie | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Oprindelsesår≠ | 1995 | 2009 |
| Ophavsperson≠ | Paul Schoemaker, drawing on Herman Kahn and the Shell/intuitive-logics tradition | William J. Sutherland, Effie Amanatidou, and the foresight/scanning community |
| Type≠ | Structured future-construction process | Systematic search-and-detection process |
| Oprindelig kilde≠ | Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(2), 25-40. link ↗ | Sutherland, W. J., & Woodroof, H. J. (2009). The need for environmental horizon scanning. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 24(10), 523-527. DOI ↗ |
| Aliasser | Scenario planning, Intuitive-logics scenarios, Scenario building | Environmental scanning, Weak-signal detection, Emerging-issues analysis |
| Relaterede | 4 | 4 |
| Resumé≠ | The scenario method constructs a small set of internally consistent, plausible stories about how the future might unfold, built from the key driving forces and critical uncertainties facing a decision. Rather than forecasting one expected future, it deliberately develops several contrasting futures so that strategies can be tested against a range of possibilities and decision-makers can rehearse responses to what might otherwise be surprises. | Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of information to detect early signs of potentially important developments—weak signals, emerging issues, and wild cards—before they become obvious or fully formed. By surveying a wide range of sources at the edge of current attention, it gives decision-makers advance warning of opportunities and threats and supplies the raw material for foresight, scenario building, and anticipatory policy. |
| ScholarGateDatasæt ↗ |
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