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| Technology Delphi× | Technology Foresight× | |
|---|---|---|
| Fagområde | Science Technology Studies | Science Technology Studies |
| Familie | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Oprindelsesår≠ | 1975 | 1995 |
| Ophavsperson≠ | Helmer & Dalkey (RAND); national applications by NISTEP (Japan) and Cuhls (Germany) | Ben R. Martin, Irene Miles, and the UK/Japanese foresight programmes |
| Type≠ | Iterative structured expert-survey process | Participatory future-oriented strategic process |
| Oprindelig kilde≠ | Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications. Addison-Wesley. ISBN: 9780201042948 | Martin, B. R. (1995). Foresight in science and technology. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 7(2), 139-168. DOI ↗ |
| Aliasser | Technology Delphi survey, Foresight Delphi, National Delphi forecast | Foresight studies, Strategic technology forecasting, Future-oriented technology analysis |
| Relaterede | 4 | 4 |
| Resumé≠ | The technology Delphi is a large-scale, multi-round expert survey used to forecast the timing, importance, and feasibility of future technological developments. Built on the classic Delphi principles of anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback, and statistical aggregation, it elicits judgements from hundreds or thousands of experts on a structured list of technology statements and converges them, round by round, into a collective forecast that informs national and organisational science and technology priorities. | Technology foresight is a systematic, participatory process of looking into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy, and society in order to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Rather than predicting a single future, it brings experts and stakeholders together to explore plausible futures, build shared visions, and translate them into present-day priorities and action. |
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