Sammenlign metoder

	Customer Equity Modeling	BG/NBD Model
Fagområde	Markedsføring	Markedsføring
Familie	Process / pipeline	Regression model
Oprindelsesår	2004	2005
Ophavsperson	Robert Blattberg & John Deighton; Roland Rust, Katherine Lemon & Valarie Zeithaml	Peter S. Fader, Bruce G. S. Hardie & Ka Lok Lee
Type	Strategic valuation and resource-allocation framework	Probabilistic buy-till-you-die model of repeat transactions
Oprindelig kilde	Rust, R. T., Lemon, K. N., & Zeithaml, V. A. (2004). Return on Marketing: Using Customer Equity to Focus Marketing Strategy. Journal of Marketing, 68(1), 109-127.	Fader, P. S., Hardie, B. G. S., & Lee, K. L. (2005). "Counting Your Customers" the Easy Way: An Alternative to the Pareto/NBD Model. Marketing Science, 24(2), 275-284.
Aliasser	Customer Equity Analysis, Return on Marketing Customer Equity, Customer Equity Test, Customer-Based Firm Valuation	Beta-Geometric/NBD Model, BG/NBD, Buy-Till-You-Die Model, Fader-Hardie-Lee Model
Relaterede	4	4
Resumé	Customer equity modeling treats a firm's customers as financial assets and defines the value of the firm's customer base as the sum of the discounted lifetime values of its current and future customers. The idea was crystallized by Robert Blattberg and John Deighton, who proposed managing marketing by the 'customer equity test,' asking of any initiative whether it will grow customer equity, and who showed how to balance spending between acquiring new customers and retaining existing ones. Roland Rust, Katherine Lemon and Valarie Zeithaml extended the framework into a strategic, driver-based model, decomposing customer equity into value equity (objective perceptions of quality, price and convenience), brand equity (subjective and emotional brand perceptions) and retention equity (the strength of the customer relationship and loyalty programs). Their 'Return on Marketing' approach links each marketing action through these drivers to brand-switching probabilities, to changes in lifetime value, and ultimately to the change in customer equity it produces, so competing strategies can be compared on projected financial return. Customer equity modeling thus connects customer-level analytics to firm-level valuation and budget allocation, providing a common currency for marketing decisions.	The BG/NBD (Beta-Geometric/Negative Binomial Distribution) model is a probabilistic buy-till-you-die model that predicts how many times a customer will transact in the future and whether that customer is still active, using only their past purchase recency and frequency. Introduced by Peter Fader, Bruce Hardie and Ka Lok Lee in their 2005 Marketing Science paper "Counting Your Customers the Easy Way," it was designed as a far simpler alternative to the Pareto/NBD model of Schmittlein, Morrison and Colombo while delivering comparable forecasts. The model couples a Poisson purchasing process, whose rate varies across customers by a gamma distribution, with a geometric dropout process governed by a beta-distributed dropout probability. The key behavioral story is that customers buy at a steady individual rate while alive and become permanently inactive with some probability immediately after any purchase. Because the latent attrition is unobserved, the model infers each customer's probability of still being alive from how recently and how often they bought. Its estimation requires only the (x, t_x, T) summary per customer and can even be fit in a spreadsheet, which made customer-base analysis practical for ordinary analysts.