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| Coale-Trussell Model× | Lee-Carter-modellen× | |
|---|---|---|
| Fagområde | Demografi | Demografi |
| Familie | Regression model | Regression model |
| Oprindelsesår≠ | 1974 | 1992 |
| Ophavsperson≠ | Ansley J. Coale & T. James Trussell | Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter |
| Type≠ | Parametric model of marital fertility by age | Stochastic mortality forecasting model |
| Oprindelig kilde≠ | Coale, A. J., & Trussell, T. J. (1974). Model fertility schedules: variations in the age structure of childbearing in human populations. Population Index, 40(2), 185–258. link ↗ | Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI ↗ |
| Aliasser | Coale-Trussell Fertility Model, M-m Fertility Model, Model Marital Fertility Schedule, Coale-Trussell Doğurganlık Modeli | LC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli |
| Relaterede≠ | 4 | 2 |
| Resumé≠ | The Coale-Trussell model is a two-parameter parametric description of the age pattern of marital fertility, introduced by Ansley Coale and James Trussell in 1974. It expresses observed age-specific marital fertility as a standard natural-fertility schedule scaled by an overall level parameter M and modulated by an age-increasing function of deliberate birth-control intensity, summarized by a single control parameter m. | The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections. |
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