Porovnat metody
Prohlédněte si vybrané metody vedle sebe; řádky, které se liší, jsou zvýrazněny.
| Bayesovská analýza stromu událostí× | Bayesovská analýza stromu poruch× | |
|---|---|---|
| Obor | Plánování experimentů | Plánování experimentů |
| Rodina | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Rok vzniku≠ | ETA: 1960s–1970s; Bayesian extension: 1990s–2000s | 2001 (BFTA mapping); Bayesian networks: 1988 |
| Tvůrce≠ | H.E. Watson (Bell Labs, fault tree); ETA formalized via US Nuclear Regulatory Commission; Bayesian extension developed in reliability and risk engineering communities | Andrea Bobbio, Luca Portinale et al. (mapping FTA to Bayesian networks); Judea Pearl (Bayesian networks) |
| Typ≠ | Probabilistic risk and reliability analysis technique | Probabilistic reliability / safety analysis |
| Původní zdroj≠ | Bearfield, G., & Marsh, W. (2005). Generalising event trees using Bayesian networks with a case study of train derailment. In G. Windeknecht et al. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 13th Safety-Critical Systems Symposium. Springer. link ↗ | Bobbio, A., Portinale, L., Minichino, M., & Ciancamerla, E. (2001). Improving the analysis of dependable systems by mapping fault trees into Bayesian networks. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 71(3), 249–260. DOI ↗ |
| Další názvy | Bayesian ETA, B-ETA, Probabilistic Event Tree Analysis, Bayesian Inductive Risk Model | BFTA, Bayesian FTA, Bayesian network fault tree, probabilistic fault tree analysis |
| Příbuzné | 5 | 5 |
| Shrnutí≠ | Bayesian Event Tree Analysis (B-ETA) is a quantitative risk assessment method that extends classical event tree analysis by incorporating Bayesian inference to assign and update branch probabilities. Starting from an initiating event, it maps sequences of successes and failures through safety barriers, using prior distributions and observed evidence to produce posterior outcome probabilities. Widely used in nuclear safety, process industries, and system reliability engineering. | Bayesian Fault Tree Analysis (BFTA) extends classical fault tree analysis by converting the fault tree structure into an equivalent Bayesian network, enabling probabilistic inference in both forward (prediction) and backward (diagnosis) directions. This integration allows analysts to update failure probability estimates with observed evidence, quantify uncertainty explicitly, and identify the most probable root causes of a top-level system failure. |
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