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Sullivan Method×লি-কার্টার মডেল×
ক্ষেত্রজনমিতিজনমিতি
পরিবারSurvival analysisRegression model
উদ্ভবের বছর19711992
প্রবর্তকDaniel F. SullivanRonald Lee & Lawrence Carter
ধরনPrevalence-based health expectancy estimatorStochastic mortality forecasting model
মৌলিক উৎসSullivan, D. F. (1971). A single index of mortality and morbidity. HSMHA Health Reports, 86(4), 347–354. link ↗Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI ↗
অপর নামSullivan's Index, Sullivan Health Expectancy Method, Prevalence-Based Health Expectancy, Sullivan YöntemiLC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli
সম্পর্কিত42
সারসংক্ষেপThe Sullivan method is a simple, widely used technique for estimating health expectancy — the average number of years a person can expect to live in a given health state, such as free of disability. Introduced by Daniel Sullivan in 1971, it combines an ordinary period life table with the observed age-specific prevalence of the health state, partitioning life-table person-years into healthy and unhealthy years without requiring any longitudinal transition data.The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.
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ScholarGateপদ্ধতির তুলনা করুন: Sullivan Method · Lee-Carter Model. 2026-06-24 তারিখে সংগৃহীত, উৎস: https://scholargate.app/bn/compare