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Group-Based Trajectory Model×Age-Crime Curve Modeling×
ক্ষেত্রCriminologyCriminology
পরিবারRegression modelRegression model
উদ্ভবের বছর19931983
প্রবর্তকDaniel S. Nagin & Kenneth C. LandTravis Hirschi & Michael Gottfredson; David Farrington
ধরনFinite-mixture model of longitudinal developmental trajectoriesNonlinear regression modeling of the age distribution of offending
মৌলিক উৎসNagin, D. S., & Land, K. C. (1993). Age, criminal careers, and population heterogeneity: Specification and estimation of a nonparametric, mixed Poisson model. Criminology, 31(3), 327–362. DOI ↗Hirschi, T., & Gottfredson, M. (1983). Age and the explanation of crime. American Journal of Sociology, 89(3), 552–584. DOI ↗
অপর নামGBTM, Group-Based Modeling of Development, Nagin Trajectory Model, Semiparametric Group-Based ModelingAge-Crime Relationship Modeling, Age-Offending Curve, Aggregate Age-Crime Distribution, Crime-Age Profile Modeling
সম্পর্কিত44
সারসংক্ষেপGroup-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) is a finite-mixture method that identifies clusters of individuals who follow similar developmental paths of a behavior — most famously offending — over age or time. Introduced to criminology by Daniel Nagin and Kenneth Land in 1993, it replaces the assumption of a single average trajectory with a small number of distinct latent groups, each described by its own polynomial curve and its share of the population.Age-crime curve modeling fits statistical functions to the well-known relationship between age and offending: crime rises sharply in adolescence, peaks in the late teens or early twenties, and declines through adulthood. Brought to prominence by Hirschi and Gottfredson's 1983 claim that this curve is invariant, and elaborated by Farrington, the modeling task is to capture its characteristic skewed, single-peaked shape and to debate what it implies about the causes of crime.
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