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| Net Migration Rate× | Прогноза на населението по когорти и компоненти× | |
|---|---|---|
| Област | Демография | Демография |
| Семейство | Process / pipeline | Process / pipeline |
| Година на възникване≠ | 1976 | 2001 |
| Създател≠ | Classical vital-statistics measure (formalized by Shryock & Siegel) | Preston, Heuveline & Guillot |
| Тип≠ | Rate of net population change due to migration per unit population | Demographic projection pipeline |
| Основополагащ източник | Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 9781557864512 | Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2 |
| Други названия≠ | Net Migration Ratio, Crude Net Migration Rate, Net Migration per 1000 | Cohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen Projeksiyonu |
| Свързани≠ | 4 | 3 |
| Резюме≠ | The net migration rate expresses the net effect of migration on a population's size as a rate: net migration — in-migrants minus out-migrants over a period — divided by the population at risk, conventionally stated per 1000 people. It is the migration counterpart to the rate of natural increase and a standard component of population accounting. Because directional migration flows are often poorly recorded, net migration is frequently not counted directly but estimated as a residual from the demographic balancing equation or by comparing surviving cohorts across two censuses. | Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide. |
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