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Анализ на таблица на живота×Прогноза на населението по когорти и компоненти×Оценител на преживяемостта на Каплан-Майер×Модел на Лий-Картър×
ОбластДемографияДемографияАнализ на преживяемосттаДемография
СемействоSurvival analysisProcess / pipelineSurvival analysisRegression model
Година на възникване1984200119581992
СъздателDemographic/actuarial tradition; ChiangPreston, Heuveline & GuillotKaplan, E. L. & Meier, P.Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter
ТипAge-structured mortality estimatorDemographic projection pipelineNon-parametric survival estimatorStochastic mortality forecasting model
Основополагащ източникChiang, C. L. (1984). The Life Table and Its Applications. Robert E. Krieger Publishing. ISBN: 978-0-89874-565-2Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2Kaplan, E. L. & Meier, P. (1958). Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53(282), 457–481. DOI ↗Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671. DOI ↗
Други названияMortality Table, Actuarial Table, Survival Table, Yaşam TablosuCohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen Projeksiyonuproduct-limit estimator, km curve, kaplan-meier sağkalım analiziLC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli
Свързани3322
РезюмеA life table is a systematic, age-structured summary of the mortality experience of a population. It traces a hypothetical cohort of births — conventionally 100,000 — through successive age intervals, recording how many survive, how many die, and how many person-years are lived at each interval. The method was formalized in its modern probabilistic form by Chiang (1984), synthesizing centuries of actuarial and demographic practice into a rigorous statistical framework applicable to human and biological populations alike.Cohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide.The Kaplan-Meier estimator, introduced by Kaplan and Meier in 1958, is a non-parametric method that estimates the survival curve — the probability of remaining event-free over time — from right-censored time-to-event data. The log-rank test is the companion procedure used to compare survival curves between groups.The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.
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ScholarGateСравнение на методи: Life Table · Cohort-Component Projection · Kaplan-Meier · Lee-Carter Model. Извлечено на 2026-06-19 от https://scholargate.app/bg/compare