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| Теория на достоверността× | Бонус-Малус система× | |
|---|---|---|
| Област | Актюерска наука | Актюерска наука |
| Семейство | Regression model | Regression model |
| Година на възникване≠ | 1967 | 1995 |
| Създател≠ | Hans Bühlmann | Jean Lemaire |
| Тип≠ | Weighted linear blend of individual and collective experience | Actuarial experience-rating model |
| Основополагащ източник≠ | Bühlmann, H. (1967). Experience rating and credibility. ASTIN Bulletin, 4(3), 199–207. DOI ↗ | Lemaire, J. (1995). Bonus-Malus Systems in Automobile Insurance. Kluwer Academic Publishers. ISBN: 978-0-7923-9545-5 |
| Други названия | Bühlmann Credibility, Experience Rating, Linear Credibility Estimator, Güvenilirlik Teorisi | No-Claim Discount System, Merit Rating System, Experience Rating in Automobile Insurance, Prim-Ceza Sistemi |
| Свързани≠ | 3 | 2 |
| Резюме≠ | Credibility Theory is an actuarial framework for estimating the pure premium of an individual risk by blending its own observed loss experience with the collective (portfolio) mean. Introduced by Hans Bühlmann in 1967, the method derives the optimal linear combination—the credibility-weighted premium—that minimises mean squared error. It extends classical experience rating to a rigorous statistical footing rooted in Bayesian and linear estimation principles. | A Bonus-Malus System (BMS) is an actuarial experience-rating mechanism used primarily in automobile insurance to adjust individual policyholders' premiums based on their personal claim history. Policyholders who remain claim-free receive premium discounts (bonus), while those who file claims are penalised with surcharges (malus). The framework was comprehensively formalised and analysed by Jean Lemaire in his landmark 1995 monograph, which remains the definitive reference for the design and evaluation of such systems worldwide. |
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