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| Brass Growth Balance Method× | Теория на стабилното население× | |
|---|---|---|
| Област | Демография | Демография |
| Семейство≠ | Process / pipeline | Regression model |
| Година на възникване≠ | 1975 | 1972 |
| Създател≠ | William Brass | Alfred J. Lotka; Ansley Coale |
| Тип≠ | Death distribution method for estimating the completeness of death registration | Mathematical demographic model |
| Основополагащ източник≠ | Preston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 9781557864512 | Coale, A. J. (1972). The Growth and Structure of Human Populations: A Mathematical Investigation. Princeton University Press. ISBN: 978-0-691-09357-4 |
| Други названия | Brass growth balance equation, GBM, Death registration completeness estimation, Brass Büyüme Dengesi Yöntemi | Lotka-Coale Stable Population Model, Stable Age Distribution Theory, Stationary Population Theory, Kararlı Nüfus Teorisi |
| Свързани≠ | 4 | 2 |
| Резюме≠ | The Brass growth balance method estimates how complete a country's death registration is when vital statistics are incomplete but a census age distribution exists. Developed by William Brass in 1975, it rests on a simple demographic accounting identity applied above every age: in a stable population the rate at which people enter an open-ended age group must equal the population growth rate plus the rate at which they leave it by dying. Plotting the entry rate against the observed death rate above each age yields a straight line whose slope reveals the fraction of deaths actually registered. | Stable Population Theory is a mathematical framework in demography that describes the age structure and growth dynamics of a closed population subject to constant age-specific fertility and mortality schedules over a long period. Foundational work by Alfred J. Lotka established the core integral equation in the early twentieth century, and Ansley Coale's 1972 mathematical synthesis became the definitive theoretical reference, showing that any population exposed to invariant vital rates will converge to a unique stable age distribution growing at a fixed intrinsic rate of natural increase. |
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