قارن الطرق

	Sullivan Method	نموذج لي-كارتر (Lee-Carter Model)
المجال	علم السكان	علم السكان
العائلة	Survival analysis	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1971	1992
صاحب الطريقة	Daniel F. Sullivan	Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter
النوع	Prevalence-based health expectancy estimator	Stochastic mortality forecasting model
المصدر التأسيسي	Sullivan, D. F. (1971). A single index of mortality and morbidity. HSMHA Health Reports, 86(4), 347–354.	Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671.
الأسماء البديلة	Sullivan's Index, Sullivan Health Expectancy Method, Prevalence-Based Health Expectancy, Sullivan Yöntemi	LC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli
ذات صلة	4	2
الملخص	The Sullivan method is a simple, widely used technique for estimating health expectancy — the average number of years a person can expect to live in a given health state, such as free of disability. Introduced by Daniel Sullivan in 1971, it combines an ordinary period life table with the observed age-specific prevalence of the health state, partitioning life-table person-years into healthy and unhealthy years without requiring any longitudinal transition data.	The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.