قارن الطرق

	تحليل جدوى التجمعات السكانية (Population Viability Analysis)	مصفوفة ليزلي
المجال	علم البيئة	علم البيئة
العائلة	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
سنة النشأة	1981	1945
صاحب الطريقة	Mark Shaffer	Patrick Leslie
النوع	extinction risk assessment	structured population dynamics
المصدر التأسيسي	Shaffer, M. L. (1981). Minimum population sizes for species conservation. BioScience, 31(2), 131-134.	Leslie, P. H. (1945). On the use of matrices in certain population mathematics. Biometrika, 33(3), 183-212.
الأسماء البديلة	PVA, extinction risk, minimum viable population, MVP	Leslie model, age-structured population model, matrix population model, population dynamics
ذات صلة	4	4
الملخص	Population Viability Analysis (PVA), introduced by Shaffer (1981), estimates the probability that a population will persist over a given time period under specified conditions. PVA combines demographic models (Leslie matrices, IPMs) with stochastic simulation to project population trajectories, quantifying extinction risk. This allows conservation planners to assess whether a population will likely persist, evaluate management scenarios, and estimate the minimum viable population (MVP) size for long-term persistence. PVA is a decision-support tool, not a precise predictor.	The Leslie matrix is a deterministic model of age-structured population dynamics, introduced by Patrick Leslie (1945). It projects population size and structure forward in time using age-specific fertility and survival rates. A Leslie matrix encodes these vital rates in a square matrix; multiplying the matrix by a population vector yields the population's composition at the next time step. This approach enables calculation of the population's asymptotic growth rate (λ), identification of stable age structure, and sensitivity analysis—understanding which vital rates most strongly influence population growth.