قارن الطرق

	محاكاة السيناريوهات السياساتية	تحليل السيناريوهات السياساتية
المجال	المحاكاة	المحاكاة
العائلة	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
سنة النشأة	1957	1967–1990s
صاحب الطريقة	Guy H. Orcutt	Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD
النوع	Simulation — individual-level policy scenario analysis	Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method
المصدر التأسيسي	Orcutt, G. H. (1957). A new type of socio-economic system. Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(2), 116–123.	Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146.
الأسماء البديلة	PSM, Policy Microsimulation, Scenario-Based Microsimulation, Policy Impact Microsimulation	PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis
ذات صلة	5	5
الملخص	Policy Scenario Microsimulation applies microsimulation methods to evaluate and compare the distributional and aggregate effects of alternative policy scenarios on a synthetic population. By simulating individual-level behaviour under each policy regime, researchers can measure winners and losers, fiscal costs, and equity outcomes before real implementation.	Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health.