قارن الطرق

	محاكاة الأحداث المنفصلة لسيناريوهات السياسات	تحليل السيناريوهات السياساتية
المجال	المحاكاة	المحاكاة
العائلة	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
سنة النشأة	1960s–1990s	1967–1990s
صاحب الطريقة	Tocher, K. D. and Gordon, G. (early DES); policy scenario extension emerged through operations research and health policy modeling communities	Kahn, H. & Wiener, A. J. (seminal); adapted for policy by RAND Corporation and OECD
النوع	Simulation-based policy evaluation	Qualitative-quantitative hybrid scenario method
المصدر التأسيسي	Law, A. M. (2015). Simulation Modeling and Analysis (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education. ISBN: 9780073401324	Swart, R., Raskin, P., Robinson, J. (2004). The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis. Global Environmental Change, 14(2), 137–146.
الأسماء البديلة	Policy DES, Scenario-based DES, Policy simulation DES, DES policy analysis	PSA, Policy Scenarios, Policy Impact Scenario Analysis, Counterfactual Policy Analysis
ذات صلة	5	5
الملخص	Policy Scenario Discrete-Event Simulation combines the event-by-event fidelity of Discrete-Event Simulation with systematic policy scenario analysis to evaluate how different interventions, regulations, or resource allocations change system performance. By running multiple well-defined policy scenarios through the same DES model, analysts can compare outcomes — throughput, waiting times, costs — across alternatives before real-world implementation.	Policy Scenario Analysis is a structured method for evaluating how different policy interventions perform across a range of plausible future states. By pairing specific policy levers with alternative scenarios, analysts can assess robustness, trade-offs, and unintended consequences of policy choices before implementation — making it a cornerstone of evidence-based policy design in fields from climate to public health.