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المحاكاة المصغرة×ديناميكيات الأنظمة×
المجالالمحاكاةالمحاكاة
العائلةProcess / pipelineProcess / pipeline
سنة النشأة19571961
صاحب الطريقةGuy Orcutt (concept, 1957); modern tax-transfer frameworks developed through EUROMOD and related projectsJay W. Forrester
النوعPolicy simulation / computational social scienceContinuous simulation / feedback modelling
المصدر التأسيسيO'Donoghue, C. (Ed.) (2014). Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling. Emerald. DOI ↗Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159
الأسماء البديلةMikrosimülasyon, micro-simulation, policy microsimulationstock-flow modelling, Sistem Dinamiği (Stock-Flow Modelleme), SD modelling, feedback simulation
ذات صلة53
الملخصMicrosimulation is a computational method that simulates policy effects by operating directly on a population of individual micro-units — households, firms, patients — and applying rules to each unit according to its own demographic, economic, and behavioural characteristics. Developed conceptually by Guy Orcutt in 1957, it has become the standard tool for evaluating tax reform, pension systems, and health policy before implementation.System dynamics is a continuous simulation method, developed by Jay W. Forrester at MIT in 1961, that represents a complex system through stocks (accumulations), flows (rates of change), and feedback loops. By expressing these relationships as coupled ordinary differential equations, it reproduces how policies, delays, and nonlinear feedbacks drive system behaviour over time — making it a cornerstone tool in policy analysis, organisational modelling, and sustainability research.
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ScholarGateقارن الطرق: Microsimulation · System Dynamics. استُرجع بتاريخ 2026-06-15 من https://scholargate.app/ar/compare