قارن الطرق

	Interrupted Time Series in Crime Analysis	Deterrence Analysis
المجال	Criminology	Criminology
العائلة	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
سنة النشأة	1980	1968
صاحب الطريقة	George E. P. Box & George C. Tiao (intervention analysis); David McDowall, Richard McCleary, and colleagues (criminological text)	Cesare Beccaria & Jeremy Bentham (classical); Gary Becker & Daniel Nagin (modern)
النوع	Quasi-experimental evaluation of a policy effect on a time series	Theory and empirical analysis of how punishment deters offending
المصدر التأسيسي	McDowall, D., McCleary, R., Meidinger, E. E., & Hay, R. A. (1980). Interrupted Time Series Analysis. Sage Publications. ISBN: 9780803914933	Nagin, D. S. (2013). Deterrence in the twenty-first century: A review of the evidence. Crime and Justice, 42(1), 199–263.
الأسماء البديلة	Crime Intervention Analysis, ITS Crime Evaluation, Quasi-Experimental Time Series for Crime, Pre-Post Crime Trend Analysis	Deterrence Theory, Certainty-Severity-Celerity Analysis, Perceptual Deterrence Analysis, Focused Deterrence Analysis
ذات صلة	4	4
الملخص	Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis evaluates whether a law, policy, or intervention changed the course of a crime series. By modeling the level and slope of crime before and after a dated 'interruption' — a gun-control law, a policing crackdown, a sentencing reform — it tests whether the series jumped or bent at that moment relative to its prior trend. Box and Tiao formalized intervention analysis in 1975, and McDowall, McCleary, and colleagues brought the method to criminology in their widely used 1980 monograph.	Deterrence analysis studies how the threat and imposition of legal punishment discourage crime. Rooted in classical criminology and formalized in Gary Becker's economic model, it distinguishes the certainty, severity, and celerity of punishment, separates perceived from objective sanction risk, and uses quasi-experimental and perceptual evidence — synthesized by Daniel Nagin — to test how much, and through what channels, punishment actually deters.