قارن الطرق

	متوسط النماذج البايزية الهرمية	سلسلة ماركوف مونت كارلو الهرمية
المجال	بايزي	بايزي
العائلة	Bayesian methods	Bayesian methods
سنة النشأة	1999–2000s	1990
صاحب الطريقة	Extension formalised by Hoeting, Madigan, Raftery, and Volinsky; hierarchical application developed through 1990s–2000s Bayesian literature	Gelfand & Smith (1990), building on Geman & Geman (1984)
النوع	Bayesian model averaging within hierarchical models	Bayesian computational sampler
المصدر التأسيسي	Hoeting, J. A., Madigan, D., Raftery, A. E., & Volinsky, C. T. (1999). Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial. Statistical Science, 14(4), 382–417.	Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Dunson, D. B., Vehtari, A. & Rubin, D. B. (2013). Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd ed.). CRC Press. ISBN: 978-1439840955
الأسماء البديلة	HBMA, hierarchical BMA, multilevel Bayesian model averaging, Bayesian model averaging in hierarchical models	hierarchical MCMC, MCMC for multilevel models, Bayesian hierarchical MCMC, multilevel MCMC sampling
ذات صلة	5	6
الملخص	Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) combines Bayesian model averaging with hierarchical model structure, averaging posterior quantities over a set of candidate models weighted by each model's posterior probability. Rather than selecting a single best model, HBMA propagates model uncertainty through a hierarchical framework, producing predictions and parameter estimates that honestly reflect uncertainty about which model is correct.	Hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo applies MCMC sampling to hierarchical Bayesian models, jointly drawing from the posterior over both observation-level parameters and the hyperparameters that govern them. This allows principled uncertainty propagation across all levels of a multilevel structure, from individuals to groups to population, using algorithms such as Gibbs sampling, Metropolis-Hastings, or Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.