قارن الطرق

	Heligman-Pollard Model	نموذج لي-كارتر (Lee-Carter Model)
المجال	علم السكان	علم السكان
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	1980	1992
صاحب الطريقة	Larry Heligman & John H. Pollard	Ronald Lee & Lawrence Carter
النوع	Parametric whole-lifespan mortality law	Stochastic mortality forecasting model
المصدر التأسيسي	Heligman, L., & Pollard, J. H. (1980). The age pattern of mortality. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 107(1), 49–80.	Lee, R. D., & Carter, L. R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(419), 659–671.
الأسماء البديلة	Heligman-Pollard Mortality Law, Eight-Parameter Mortality Model, HP Mortality Model, Heligman-Pollard Ölümlülük Modeli	LC Model, Lee-Carter Mortality Model, Singular Value Decomposition Mortality Model, Lee-Carter Ölümlülük Modeli
ذات صلة	4	2
الملخص	The Heligman-Pollard model is an eight-parameter parametric law that describes the age pattern of mortality across the entire human lifespan in a single equation. Introduced by Larry Heligman and John Pollard in 1980, it represents the odds of dying at each age as the sum of three additive components — a rapidly declining childhood term, a young-adult accident hump, and an exponentially rising senescent term — capturing the full characteristic shape of the mortality curve from birth to old age.	The Lee-Carter model is a stochastic framework for modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rates, introduced by Ronald Lee and Lawrence Carter in their landmark 1992 paper. It decomposes the logarithm of age-specific death rates into an age pattern of mortality, a time-varying index of mortality level, and an age-specific sensitivity of that index, then forecasts the time index using ARIMA time-series methods to generate probabilistic mortality projections.