قارن الطرق

	تحليل السيناريوهات الحتمية	ديناميكيات الأنظمة
المجال	المحاكاة	المحاكاة
العائلة	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
سنة النشأة	1967	1961
صاحب الطريقة	Kahn, H., Wiener, A. J. (RAND Corporation / Hudson Institute)	Jay W. Forrester
النوع	Exploratory planning and decision-support framework	Continuous simulation / feedback modelling
المصدر التأسيسي	Kahn, H., Wiener, A. J. (1967). The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. Macmillan, New York. ISBN: 9780025604407	Sterman, J.D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Irwin McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 978-0072389159
الأسماء البديلة	DSA, Fixed-Input Scenario Analysis, Classical Scenario Analysis, Deterministic What-If Analysis	stock-flow modelling, Sistem Dinamiği (Stock-Flow Modelleme), SD modelling, feedback simulation
ذات صلة	5	3
الملخص	Deterministic Scenario Analysis (DSA) is a structured planning method in which analysts construct a finite set of internally consistent future scenarios, each defined by fixed, precisely specified parameter values rather than probability distributions. By running a model or calculation under each scenario's fixed inputs, decision-makers can map how outcomes diverge across plausible futures and stress-test strategies without requiring full probabilistic characterization of uncertainty.	System dynamics is a continuous simulation method, developed by Jay W. Forrester at MIT in 1961, that represents a complex system through stocks (accumulations), flows (rates of change), and feedback loops. By expressing these relationships as coupled ordinary differential equations, it reproduces how policies, delays, and nonlinear feedbacks drive system behaviour over time — making it a cornerstone tool in policy analysis, organisational modelling, and sustainability research.