قارن الطرق

	Delphi Environmental Foresight	Livelihood Vulnerability Index
المجال	Environmental Sociology	Environmental Sociology
العائلة	Process / pipeline	MCDM
سنة النشأة	1999	2009
صاحب الطريقة	Gene Rowe & George Wright (synthesizing the RAND Delphi tradition)	Micah B. Hahn, Anne M. Riederer & Stanley O. Foster
النوع	Iterative anonymous expert-elicitation pipeline with controlled feedback	Composite indicator of household climate vulnerability
المصدر التأسيسي	Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, 15(4), 353-375.	Hahn, M. B., Riederer, A. M., & Foster, S. O. (2009). The Livelihood Vulnerability Index: A pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change-A case study in Mozambique. Global Environmental Change, 19(1), 74-88.
الأسماء البديلة	Environmental Delphi, Policy Delphi, Delphi Expert Elicitation, Iterative Expert Consensus Survey	LVI, Hahn Livelihood Vulnerability Index, LVI-IPCC, Composite Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment
ذات صلة	3	3
الملخص	The Delphi method is a structured technique for aggregating expert judgment about uncertain or future-oriented questions through several rounds of anonymous, individually completed surveys with controlled feedback between rounds. As distilled in Rowe and Wright's 1999 analysis, its defining features are anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback of the group's responses, and statistical summary of the panel's collective view. Applied to environmental foresight, Delphi is used to elicit and synthesize expert opinion on questions where hard data are sparse or absent — the timing of ecological thresholds, the plausibility of emerging risks, the priority of research needs, or the likely effectiveness of policy options. By letting experts revise their judgments in light of the anonymized group response, Delphi seeks reasoned convergence while filtering out the social pressures of face-to-face committees.	The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) is a composite-indicator method for assessing the vulnerability of households and communities to climate variability and change, developed by Micah Hahn, Anne Riederer and Stanley Foster in a 2009 case study in Mozambique. It is built from household survey data organized into major components — typically socio-demographic profile, livelihood strategies, social networks, health, food, water, and exposure to natural disasters and climate variability — each composed of standardized sub-indicators. These are normalized to a common scale, averaged into sub-components and weighted major components, and aggregated into an overall index. A companion formulation, the LVI-IPCC, reorganizes the same indicators into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's contributing factors of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, offering a pragmatic, data-driven way to compare vulnerability across places and to target adaptation.