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إسقاط السكان بالنهج القائم على الأجيال والمكونات×مقدّر البقاء لكابلان-ماير×
المجالعلم السكانتحليل البقاء
العائلةProcess / pipelineSurvival analysis
سنة النشأة20011958
صاحب الطريقةPreston, Heuveline & GuillotKaplan, E. L. & Meier, P.
النوعDemographic projection pipelineNon-parametric survival estimator
المصدر التأسيسيPreston, S. H., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Blackwell. ISBN: 978-1-557-86451-2Kaplan, E. L. & Meier, P. (1958). Nonparametric Estimation from Incomplete Observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 53(282), 457–481. DOI ↗
الأسماء البديلةCohort-Component Method, Component Method of Population Projection, Age-Sex-Specific Population Projection, Kohort-Bileşen Projeksiyonuproduct-limit estimator, km curve, kaplan-meier sağkalım analizi
ذات صلة32
الملخصCohort-Component Projection is the standard demographic method for forecasting future population size and age-sex structure by explicitly tracking births, deaths, and migration for each age-sex cohort across discrete time steps. Systematically formalized in the textbook literature by Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001), the method builds on foundational actuarial and demographic work dating to the early twentieth century and remains the workhorse technique used by national statistical offices and international organizations worldwide.The Kaplan-Meier estimator, introduced by Kaplan and Meier in 1958, is a non-parametric method that estimates the survival curve — the probability of remaining event-free over time — from right-censored time-to-event data. The log-rank test is the companion procedure used to compare survival curves between groups.
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ScholarGateقارن الطرق: Cohort-Component Projection · Kaplan-Meier. استُرجع بتاريخ 2026-06-19 من https://scholargate.app/ar/compare