قارن الطرق

	نموذج تصحيح الخطأ المتجه البايزي (Bayesian VECM)	نموذج تصحيح الخطأ المتجهي (VECM)
المجال	الاقتصاد القياسي	الاقتصاد القياسي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	2002–2005	1987
صاحب الطريقة	Kleibergen & Paap; Villani	Robert F. Engle and Clive W. J. Granger
النوع	Bayesian multivariate time series model	Multivariate time-series model
المصدر التأسيسي	Kleibergen, F., & Paap, R. (2002). Priors, posteriors and Bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration. Journal of Econometrics, 111(2), 223–249.	Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276.
الأسماء البديلة	Bayesian VECM, B-VECM, Bayesian cointegrated VAR, Bayesian vector error correction	VECM, error correction VAR, cointegrated VAR, vector equilibrium correction model
ذات صلة	5	5
الملخص	The Bayesian VECM combines the classical Vector Error Correction Model — which captures both short-run dynamics and long-run cointegrating relationships among non-stationary multivariate time series — with Bayesian prior distributions over the cointegrating rank and coefficient matrices. This allows principled uncertainty quantification, incorporation of economic theory as priors, and coherent inference even in small samples.	The Vector Error Correction Model extends the Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework to a system of variables that share one or more long-run equilibrium relationships. It jointly models short-run dynamics and the speed at which each variable corrects back toward equilibrium after a shock, making it the standard tool for analysing cointegrated multivariate time series.