قارن الطرق

	المحاكاة الجزئية البيزية	المحاكاة المصغرة
المجال	المحاكاة	المحاكاة
العائلة	Process / pipeline	Process / pipeline
سنة النشأة	1990s–2000s	1957
صاحب الطريقة	Williamson, P.; Birkin, M.; Rees, P. H. and related health-economics researchers	Guy Orcutt (concept, 1957); modern tax-transfer frameworks developed through EUROMOD and related projects
النوع	Individual-level probabilistic simulation with Bayesian updating	Policy simulation / computational social science
المصدر التأسيسي	Williamson, P., Birkin, M., & Rees, P. H. (2000). The estimation of population microdata by using data from small area statistics and samples of anonymised records. Environment and Planning A, 30(5), 785-816.	O'Donoghue, C. (Ed.) (2014). Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling. Emerald.
الأسماء البديلة	Bayesian micro-simulation, BMS, Bayesian individual-level simulation, Probabilistic microsimulation	Mikrosimülasyon, micro-simulation, policy microsimulation
ذات صلة	6	5
الملخص	Bayesian Microsimulation combines individual-level simulation of heterogeneous populations with Bayesian statistical inference. Each synthetic individual follows a probabilistic life path, while model parameters are governed by prior beliefs updated with observed data. This approach is widely used in health technology assessment, public policy costing, and demographic projection, where uncertainty in both model inputs and structural assumptions must be formally quantified and propagated through to output estimates.	Microsimulation is a computational method that simulates policy effects by operating directly on a population of individual micro-units — households, firms, patients — and applying rules to each unit according to its own demographic, economic, and behavioural characteristics. Developed conceptually by Guy Orcutt in 1957, it has become the standard tool for evaluating tax reform, pension systems, and health policy before implementation.