قارن الطرق

	نموذج الهياكل الهامشية البايزي	الاختلافات في الاختلافات البايزية
المجال	الاستدلال السببي	الاستدلال السببي
العائلة	Regression model	Regression model
سنة النشأة	2015 (Bayesian extension); 2000 (MSM foundation)	2015-2023
صاحب الطريقة	Saarela, Stephens, Moodie & Klein (Bayesian extension); Robins, Hernan & Brumback (original MSM)	Li & Marchand (formal Bayesian DiD framework); Brodersen et al. (Bayesian causal inference in time series)
النوع	Causal inference / Bayesian weighted regression	Bayesian causal inference / panel regression
المصدر التأسيسي	Saarela, O., Stephens, D. A., Moodie, E. E. M., & Klein, M. B. (2015). On Bayesian estimation of marginal structural models. Biometrics, 71(2), 279-288.	Li, F., & Marchand, J. (2023). Bayesian inference for difference-in-differences. Econometrics Journal, 26(3), 509-529.
الأسماء البديلة	Bayesian MSM, Bayesian MSM-IPW, Bayesian weighted structural model, Bayesian causal MSM	Bayesian DiD, Bayes DiD, Bayesian diff-in-diff, Bayesian panel causal estimator
ذات صلة	6	5
الملخص	Bayesian Marginal Structural Model (Bayesian MSM) combines the causal identification power of inverse-probability-weighted marginal structural models with Bayesian posterior inference. Rather than relying on point estimates and asymptotic standard errors, it propagates uncertainty through a full posterior distribution over causal effect parameters, offering coherent uncertainty quantification for causal effects of time-varying treatments.	Bayesian Difference-in-Differences applies Bayesian statistical inference to the classic DiD design, replacing frequentist point estimates with full posterior distributions over the treatment effect. This yields not only an estimate of the causal effect but also a coherent probability statement about its magnitude and uncertainty, making it especially useful when sample sizes are modest or informative prior knowledge is available.