قارن الطرق

	المتغيرات الآلية البيزية (Bayesian IV)	طريقة المتغيرات الآلية (IV) للاستدلال السببي
المجال	الاستدلال السببي	اقتصاديات الصحة
العائلة	Regression model	Process / pipeline
سنة النشأة	2003	1990s (modern applications)
صاحب الطريقة	Kleibergen & Zivot (2003); Lancaster (2004)	Angrist & Pischke (applied econometrics); rooted in econometric theory
النوع	Causal inference / Bayesian estimation	Method
المصدر التأسيسي	Kleibergen, F., & Zivot, E. (2003). Bayesian and classical approaches to instrumental variable regression. Journal of Econometrics, 114(1), 29-72.	Angrist, J. D., & Pischke, J. S. (2009). Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
الأسماء البديلة	Bayesian IV, Bayesian 2SLS, Bayesian LIML, BayesIV	IV, two-stage least squares, TSLS, causal estimation
ذات صلة	6	3
الملخص	Bayesian Instrumental Variables combines the instrumental variable strategy for addressing endogeneity with Bayesian posterior inference. Instead of relying on asymptotic sampling distributions, it places prior distributions over all structural parameters and recovers a full posterior distribution for the causal effect, providing probability statements about the parameter rather than p-values — especially valuable when instruments are weak or the sample is small.	Instrumental variables (IV) is an econometric method to estimate causal effects when treatment or exposure is not randomly assigned and confounding is severe or unmeasured. IV relies on a third variable (instrument) that influences treatment but does not directly affect the outcome, allowing researchers to isolate the causal effect from the noise of confounding. Developed extensively in econometrics (Angrist & Pischke, 1990s–2000s), IV methods are increasingly used in health economics and health services research to leverage natural experiments and policy changes.